Анатолий Васильевич Кондратенко - Вероятностная теория фондовых бирж стр 8.

Similarly, a strategy has been developed for digitalization, forecasting and management of a countrys and the worlds economy. This is based on digital platforms used to accumulate the plans of economic agents, processing them using the formulas of probabilistic economic theory. If implemented, these will in turn improve the quality of public economic administration of the country, and the world.

This study demonstrates the importance and significance of stock exchanges as experimental economic laboratories, aimed primarily at testing models, evaluating model parameters and, ultimately, verifying existing and new economic theories. If we look at probabilistic economic theory, it was predominantly developed using the business world as an experimental laboratory, where the significant business experience of the author was formalized applying mathematical apparatus from theoretical physics. In the present study, using MOEX and ICE as experimental laboratories, probabilistic theory of stock exchanges has been developed by the author.

Our work consistently reveals great prospects in the further use of exchanges as powerful modern experimental economic laboratories. Some 300-500 years ago theoretical physics arose from the science of the solar system, and similarly, modern economic science will arise from the development of exchanges theory. It will consist of a closely interacting probabilistic economic theory and experimental stock exchange economics. Meeting all the generally accepted standards of the natural sciences, it will remain a humanitarian and social science.

Participants of the project «Quantum Finance Investments» of Investment Company EXCELLENCE Vitaly Martynovich and Maria Makarkina made a great contribution to the success of the project. The computer platform «QUANTUM FINANCE» was developed mainly by Vitaly Martynovich and Maria Makarkina, which they implemented in the C# language. This was used to perform calculations of exchange structures by applying the methods of probabilistic economic theory. Maria Makarkina also provided significant assistance in the preparation of this monograph for publication. I sincerely thank them both for their fruitful, long-term cooperation.

I respond with gratitude to Dmitry Sviridenko, who took on the important responsibility as executive editor of the monograph.

Thanks also go to the reviewers of the monograph Sergey Parinov and Yuri Perevyshin for the difficult work done at a highly professional level in reviewing the manuscript that presented the new theory.

I am grateful to the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung), which, many years ago, provided a scholarship that allowed him to see firsthand in West Germany how developed market economies work and how financial markets function within them.

I am grateful to the Moscow Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange Futures Europe, which provided us with access to historical data and online quotations.

I also express gratitude to the Investment Companies FINAM and Interactive Brokers for the excellent implementation of the intermediary broker functions with the MOEX and ICE exchanges, respectively.

I sincerely thank the first reader of the manuscript of the book Konstantin Gluschenko for valuable comments and recommendations. Taking them into account made the material of the book more understandable for readers who adhere to orthodox economic views.

In conclusion, after a very long delay, I would like to pay off some my old debts. Firstly, to express gratitude to Vladimir Evstigneev for the informal, but very informative and useful review of my first book on the topic of probabilistic economic theory [Kondratenko, 2005]. Ksenia Kondratenko also deserves a big thank you for her help in preparing the manuscript of this book. Secondly, I note the important role played in this study by the professor of California University (Berkeley) George Judge, who applauded and supported enthusiastically that book many years ago, for which I am immensely grateful to him.

Anatoly V. Kondratenko Russia, Novosibirsk, September 2021

All rights reserved. No part of the book or whole book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the written permission of the author.

Часто используемые символы

(FREQUENTLY USED SYMBOLS)

Г агентная ширина (agent width)

МБ Московская Биржа (Moscow Exchange, MOEX)

BRENT фьючерсы на нефть марки Brent (Brent oil futures)

C нормировочные константы (normalization constants)

D спрос (demand)

D (t, p, q) вероятностная рыночная функция спроса (probabilistic market

demand function)

D0(t) рыночная функция полного спроса (total market demand function)

ICE Intercontinental Exchange Futures Europe

F(t, p, q) вероятностная рыночная функция сделок (probabilistic market

deal function)

M (t) количество котировок предложения (number of supply quotations)

MTV(t) вероятностный объем торгов на рынке (probabilistic market trade

volume)

N(t) количество котировок спроса (number of demand quotations)

P цена (price)

p независимая переменная цены (independent price variable)

pM вероятностная рыночная цена (probabilistic market price)

q независимая переменная количества (independent quantity

variable)

qM вероятностное рыночное количество (probabilistic market quantity)

Q количество (quantity)

PQ цена и количество (price and quantity)

S предложение (supply)

SBER акции Сбербанка (Sberbank shares)

S&D предложение и спрос (supply and demand)

S(t, p, q) вероятностная рыночная функция предложения (probabilistic

market supply function)

S0(t) рыночная функция полного предложения (total market supply

function)

t независимая переменная времени (independent time variable)

TV(t) объем торгов (trade volume)

T время (time)

USD/RUB фьючерсы на американские доллары, торгуемые на МБ за русские рубли

Введение

"Если в наше время успехи на поприще естественных наук встречают всеобщую и радостную признательность, тогда как наша наука обращает на себя так мало внимания и значение ее вызывает столь сильное сомнение именно в тех кругах общества, для которых ей следовало бы служить основой практической деятельности, то причина этого не должна вызывать недоумения со стороны людей беспристрастных. Еще ни одна эпоха не ставила хозяйственных интересов выше, еще никогда потребность в научном основании хозяйственной деятельности не была так развита и не чувствовалась так глубоко; еще никогда практические деятели не обладали таким умением пользоваться успехами науки на всех поприщах человеческой деятельности. Поэтому тот факт, что практические деятели, не заботясь о развитии, достигнутом нашей наукой, прибегают в своей хозяйственной деятельности к собственному опыту, объясняется не легкомыслием или неспособностью их точно так же, как и высокомерным отказом от более глубокого понимания тех фактов и отношений, которые определяют успех их деятельности, понимания, доставляемого им истинной наукой. Причина этого бросающегося в глаза равнодушия заключается не в чем ином, как в настоящем положении самой науки, в бесплодности делавшихся до сих пор попыток постичь ее эмпирические основания".